Discussion for Post at 2007-02-07 13:10:49.157615http://www.jerf.org/iri/post/2560#CommentsDiscussion for Post at 2007-02-07 13:10:49.157615en-usWed, 21 Mar 2018 16:50:08 -0000 by Jeremy Bowers http://www.jerf.org/iri/post/2560#comment9<p>More:</p> <ul><li><b>The Availability Heuristic</b>: Imagined outcomes seem more likely. When using your imagination to guess an outcome, make an effort to imagine both (or all) outcomes. When trying to recall something importent, try to learn the "feeling" of making up details, and try substuting details. Was the person wearing a hat or not? Try to imagine the person both ways; if they both feel equally correct, then you simply don't know.</li> <li><b>Context affect</b>: <blockquote>If you want your boss to approve your $1M security budget, you'll have a much better chance of getting that approval if you give him a choice among three security plans—with budgets of $500K, $1M, and $2M, respectively—than you will if you give him a choice among three plans with budgets of $250K, $500K, and $1M. The rule of thumb makes sense: avoid extremes. It fails, however, when there's an intelligence on the other end, manipulating the set of choices so that a particular one doesn't seem extreme.</blockquote><p>Counter-hueristic: When humans are involved, just assume you are being manipulated. You probably are, even if it's not intentional.</p></li></ul> <p>The anchoring affect makes my brain sad when it think about it.</p> http://www.jerf.org/iri/post/2560#comment9